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  1. #21
    Knight of Elegance Aliasniamor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Egress View Post
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    Caruana beat Aronian which puts him in the lead for first half of the tournament.

    Although i think caruana will be the challenger, the trend is still favorable for mamedyarov. He will be a tough competitor. I was watching aronian-caruana live for a second and thought caruana was going to lose because he made mistakes and looked like he was going to fall into time trouble. karjakin beat so so he's not at last place anymore, but I don't see him being anymore than 4th place here. aronian and so are pretty much done this year.
    Caruana had both the guts and the luck in the first half, and because of the latter I think he's the one who'll prevail in the end.

    About Kramnik, it's a bit hard to see him that way, but at the same time it's fun, just look at his press conferences and how funny it is to see that he always thinks he's winning

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGOqFVNfhhY

    "The press conference reportoire of Vladimir K.- already clearly better- clear advantage- his position is already awful- should be clearly winning- somehow by miracle didn't find a winning line- play just this and basically resigns- i have mating ideas- white/black (kramniks colour) is the only one playing for a win- i'm sure this is already big advantage- just no chance for white/black(opponent colour)- should be already won- (opponent says something) - yeah but x,x,x and this is just nothing"


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIvMEJ1Nw5M

  2. #22

  3. #23
    Impressive. I was wrong about karjakin. I made my judgement based on how he was almost dead last during the first half, but he got 3 consecutive wins in the second half and is now tied first place with caruana. In fact, he beat Caruana in order to get there...

    grishuck and ding liren have also taken the second place spot that has exclusively been mamedyarov's til now.

    Karjakin is against Wesley So who's lost to karjakin before so I am expecting that karjakin will win.
    Caruana will be up against Aronian who's the weakest player here and has lost to caruana before so chances are that caruana will win.

    Final games:
    Karjakin vs Ding Liren - This will probably be a draw. Ding Liren has been very hard to beat in this candidates. All of his games have been draws until his win over mamedyarov today and he's the only person to have never lost a game up until this point.
    Caruana vs Grishuck - This will probably be a draw as well.


    I'm pretty sure in the event of a tie the winner will be automatically Karjakin.

  4. #24
    Knight of Elegance Aliasniamor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Egress View Post
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    Impressive. I was wrong about karjakin. I made my judgement based on how he was almost dead last during the first half, but he got 3 consecutive wins in the second half and is now tied first place with caruana. In fact, he beat Caruana in order to get there...
    Yeah I'm baffled by this turn of events, never would have I thought Karjakin could make such a comeback, even though he's shown in the past (candidates 2014) that he's capable of suh feats. It was a mistake to write him off early, and would be another to give him the trophy already.

    grishuck and ding liren have also taken the second place spot that has exclusively been mamedyarov's til now.
    I've liked the way they played so far so I'm happy for the both of them.

    Karjakin is against Wesley So who's lost to karjakin before so I am expecting that karjakin will win.
    Caruana will be up against Aronian who's the weakest player here and has lost to caruana before so chances are that caruana will win.
    I wouldn't say Aronian is the weakest player of this field, but in this event (and in world candidates in general) he usually plays below his usual strength. Sad for him. I can see two wins for them.

    Final games:
    Karjakin vs Ding Liren - This will probably be a draw. Ding Liren has been very hard to beat in this candidates. All of his games have been draws until his win over mamedyarov today and he's the only person to have never lost a game up until this point.
    Caruana vs Grishuck - This will probably be a draw as well.
    I expect Caruana-Grischuck to be very wild, both will have a chance to become the challenger (could depend on Grischuck's round 13 result), and thus a game in which both would go all in (if they both win round 13, Caruana and Karjakin would be tied but due to the direct encounter tie break Caruana would actually need to finish half a point above the later to win the tournament).


    I'm pretty sure in the event of a tie the winner will be automatically Karjakin.
    Yep in most cases it will be that way.

  5. #25
    Caruana lucked out. He won against Aronian as expected, but Karjakin drew against So. It seems that both of them played equally so there was never a chance for anything risky to happen.

    Last games tomorrow:
    Caruana vs. Grishcuck - This will be a draw probably.
    Karjakin vs. Ding Liren - Almost certainly going to be a draw. Ding Liren continues to be unbeaten
    Mamedyarov vs Kramanik - Mamedyarov is Caruana's back as Caruana's closest competitor now. It is possible for mamedyarov to win here.

  6. #26
    Knight of Elegance Aliasniamor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Egress View Post
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    Caruana lucked out. He won against Aronian as expected, but Karjakin drew against So. It seems that both of them played equally so there was never a chance for anything risky to happen.

    Last games tomorrow:
    Caruana vs. Grishcuck - This will be a draw probably.
    Karjakin vs. Ding Liren - Almost certainly going to be a draw. Ding Liren continues to be unbeaten
    Mamedyarov vs Kramanik - Mamedyarov is Caruana's back as Caruana's closest competitor now. It is possible for mamedyarov to win here.
    I wouldn't say he lucked out, he had the white pieces while Karja had the black pieces versus a player who can much more easily go in damage control than Aronian, so we could have called a draw in that game. Last round will be very exciting (normally), since 4 (!!) players can still aim for becoming the challenger ..

    I completely disagree with your statement about the Karjakin - Ding game though, if any of them wants the title here, they most certainly need to win (Ding needs at least), so I expect a completely wild game and it should be the game where the chances of a draw are the lowest, if I had to bet.

  7. #27
    Knight of Elegance Aliasniamor's Avatar
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    My man Caruana

    My man Carlsen will kill him though but I think it should be a great match. It seems a definite advantage for one to have his name begin with the sound "ca" (Karpov, Kasparov, Carlsen, Karjakin, Caruana, and even before, Capablanca ... )

  8. #28
    I was right about karjakin vs ding liren and nothing happened with mamedyarov vs kramnik but grishuck's energy levels must have dropped since the last game because i did not expect a win from caruana. Very happy for him. 2018 WC should be interesting.

    Especially since he's apparently the first American to be in a WC since fischer.... new york going crazy.

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